Trump is Still Odds-On Favorite to Win Re-Election. Wall Street Agrees.

by Christopher Paslay

Fake news stories and threats of impeachment have had minimal impact on President Trump’s chances of re-election in 2020.    

As the old saying goes, money talks, and B.S. walks.  And despite the bovine excrement pouring out of Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, and all the pundits, politicians, and swamp creatures who have done their damndest to lie, spy, twist, and sling mud at President Trump in order to destroy his chances at re-election, Vegas odds-makers and Wall Street power brokers know the truth: Trump is still the prohibitive favorite to win in 2020.

According to the website “The Lines” which tracks the American sports betting industry:

Donald Trump opened at even odds of +100, or even money. This means you would need to wager $100 to win $100 (and $10 to win $10). Since the Democratic debates have begun, Trump’s odds have improved as high as -120. This means you would need to wager $120 to win $100.

As of September 25th, with the launch of Pelosi’s impeachment inquiry and all the negative news coverage surrounding Trump’s Ukraine phone call, betting odds have barely moved.  The popular Bet365 and Betway both have Donald Trump at +110 to win re-election, and Odds Shark lists Trump at +120.  In contrast, major sports betting sites list Elizabeth Warren between +275 and +300, and Joe Biden between +550 and +650.  

Not that odds-makers are perfect.  In 2016, Trump was listed by most betting sites at 500/1. According to “The Lines”:

When Donald Trump declared for President, he was priced at 500/1, or +50000 on betting sites. This means that the implied odds gave Trump a 0.2% chance of winning the presidency.

So, if you saw Donald Trump listed as 500/1, a moneyline wager of $1 winning would return $500. If you see it priced at +50000, then a $100 bet would return $50,000 profit.

For the 2020 Presidential election, Donald Trump is the “odds-on” favorite on some sports betting sites, where he’s priced at 1/1 or +100.

Financial investors are confident in Trump as well. In March, a poll of Wall Street insiders showed that over 70 percent expect him to win re-election in 2020. As stated by CNBC:

“Most expect Trump to win in 2020, but there’s still some nervousness around the event,” Lori Calvasina, RBC’s head of U.S. equity strategy, wrote to clients. Sixty-seven percent “of our March 2019 survey respondents believe that Joe Biden is seen as the most acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market for the White House. No other candidate got a significant number of votes.” . . .

Presidential elections can have important implications for financial markets based on what traders believe the elected candidate will prioritize while in office. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 450 points in the two days following Trump’s election in 2016 and jumped nearly 8 percent into year-end as investors grew confident in future corporate tax reform and big spending.

Currently, even after the launch of the impeachment inquiry by Democrats and the horrendously biased coverage by the mainstream press, Wall Street still believes Trump is safe.  As reported by CNBC on September 25th:

Investors shouldn’t worry about what a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump could mean for his current term or even his reelection chances, Wall Street investment banks advised clients.

But what they really should be worried about, Washington policy analysts said, is what the impeachment inquiry means for a potential trade deal with China and an already agreed-upon deal with Canada and Mexico. Investors also can forget about any new legislation like a drug prescription policy, they said.

Although Democrats are willing to both cripple Americans financially and hinder their health insurance as a means of hurting Trump, it appears this strategy isn’t working.  In fact, it may be having the opposite effect: Trump’s re-election is now more important than ever, especially if Americans want to steady the economy, keep and reform private health insurance, and engage in fair trade with China and North America.  

But money does have a way of talking.  And right now, most of the cash is coming in on Trump.       


Why the F.B.I. Should Be Watching Reza Aslan

by Christopher Paslay

The Iranian-American scholar’s threats to “eradicate” President Trump and his supporters should be taken seriously by the U.S. government.

On the morning of August 4thReza Aslan, an Iranian-American scholar, HBO producer, and recipient of the prestigious James Joyce Award, started off his day by verbally assaulting Ivanka Trump. When the First Daughter of the United States addressed the recent shooting tragedies by tweeting, “White supremacy, like all other forms of terrorism, is an evil that must be destroyed,” Aslan responded by tweeting, “Fuck you Ivanka. Seriously. Fuck you and your entire white supremacist family.”

Moments later Aslan turned his anger on White House counselor Kellyanne Conway.  Apparently, Aslan was annoyed that Conway called for unity after this weekend’s tragic shootings.  Here’s what Conway tweeted:   

We need to come together, America. Finger-pointing, name-calling & screaming with your keyboards is easy, yet… It solves not a single problem, saves not a single life. Working as one to understand depraved evil & to eradicate hate is everyone’s duty. Unity. Let’s do this.

Here is Aslan’s response: “You are ‘the depraved evil’ we need to eradicate.”  After conservatives called out Aslan for his threat, Aslan later downplayed his remarks, tweeting:

So then when @KellyannePolls said we need to “eradicate” this evil she meant shoot it in the face? She was threatening the El Paso shooter? We are all so fucking fed up with you racist GOPers and your bad faith bullshit. 

John Cardillo, a conservative journalist and political analyst, came to Conway’s defense, pointing out that Aslan’s tweet was indeed a threat on Conway’s life, tweeting:

There’s really no other way to interpret “eradicate” other than @rezaaslan threatening the life of @KellyannePolls.

Finally, Aslan went full throttle on Trump and his supporters, tweeting:

After today there is no longer any room for nuance. The President is a white nationalist terror leader. His supporters – ALL OF THEM – are by definition white nationalist terror supporters. The MAGA hat is a KKK hood. And this evil, racist scourge must be eradicated from society.

This is the kind of language Reza Aslan, the New York Times bestselling author who was fired from CNN for calling President Trump a “piece of shit,” uses not even 72 hours after two tragic shootings left over 30 people dead.  Not only is his language extremely hateful and inflammatory, but it’s technically a threat against the President of the United States, which is a federal felony under United States Code Title 18, Section 871.  In fact, one could argue it even rises to the level of a terroristic threat, being that Aslan calls for Trump and all his supporters to be “eradicated from society.”  He even states that “there is no longer any room for nuance,” as if his words should be taken very seriously and very literally, because beating around the bush with suggestions and innuendo aren’t getting anybody anywhere; after all, Trump is still in office.         

This is how radical leftists like Aslan work.  Because the media serves as a shield for haters like Aslan — focusing on maligning Trump and his base by misrepresenting their intentions and making them into monsters — Aslan and his ilk are free to trash conservatives and incite division unperturbed, morning, noon, and night.  And then when things come to a head and tragedy strikes, well, everyone can conveniently point the finger at Trump.

Reza Aslan is an angry man, make no bones about it.  Last winter, he attacked Covington Catholic’s Nicholas Sandmann, tweeting, “Honest question. Have you ever seen a more punchable face than this kid’s?”  

Why was Nick’s face “punchable,” Aslan?  Because he was politely standing by as other activists — grown men, not high school students — were rudely invading his space and insulting him and his friends?  But we already know the answer to this question: Reza Aslan wants to punch Nick’s face because he’s white, and when Aslan sees young boys like Nick, Aslan projects his own bigotry onto them, coming to the conclusion that they are smug, spoiled, and privileged, and therefore must be taken down a notch.

Aslan’s cowardly attack on a high school kid aside, imagine if the things he said about eradicating Trump and his supporters were reversed.  Imagine if a conservative scholar and popular television producer tweeted the following about President Obama after the Fort Hood terrorist attack, where a Muslim army major shot 13 people dead (and where Obama refused to condemn Islamic extremism):             

After today there is no longer any room for nuance. The President is a Muslim terror leader. His supporters – ALL OF THEM – are by definition Islamic extremist terror supporters. The Hope and Change poster is a call for Jihad. And this evil, racist scourge must be eradicated from society.      

How fast would the F.B.I. and D.O.J. be involved?  Pretty fast, I can tell you. Especially from an Obama Justice Department that not only went after the Boy Scouts, but also destroyed the career of Tuffy, the rodeo clown who wore an Obama mask at the Missouri State Fair and was summarily fired from his job and banished from working in the state altogether.   

So far nothing has happened to Reza Aslan (other than Nick Sandmann’s lawsuit, which keeps getting dropped by liberal judges).  Maybe A.G. William Barr should make an example of Aslan by holding him accountable for verbally assaulting Ivanka (imagine if someone said of the Obama family, Fuck you Malia.  Seriously.  Fuck you and your entire Islamic extremist family), and for threatening a high schooler with violence, and for making terrorist threats against the President and his supporters.

Aslan’s inflammatory speech should not be ignored.  It’s time for the government to get involved and take a closer look.  

‘The Squad’ Should Apologize to Trump, America, and Israel

The following is an excerpt from my commentary in today’s American Thinker:

During the recent spat between President Trump and “The Squad” – Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts – Trump asked when the four women would atone for their anti-American and anti-Semitic behavior.  Early Monday morning, Trump tweeted:        

“When will the Radical Left Congresswomen apologize to our Country, the people of Israel and even to the Office of the President, for the foul language they have used, and the terrible things they have said.  So many people are angry at them & their horrible & disgusting actions!”

For Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, this involves making amends for disparaging the officers of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) – the men and women who risk their lives to keep both Americans and immigrants safe – as well as asking forgiveness for disrespecting the six million Jews murdered in the Holocaust.

“The U.S. is running concentration camps on our southern border and that is exactly what they are. That is exactly what they are. They are concentration camps,” Ocasio-Cortez said in an Instagram video.  “The fact that concentration camps are now an institutionalized practice in the Home of the Free is extraordinarily disturbing and we need to do something about it.”

Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Mark Morgan was insulted by the comment.  “It’s completely inappropriate, it’s reckless, it’s irresponsible, it’s misinformed, and it’s flat out wrong,” Morgan said in an interview.  Josh Holmes, former chief of staff for Mitch McConnell, called Ocasio-Cortez’s comments “an alarming and dangerous false equivalence that suggests a breathtaking lack of appreciation for the unparalleled evil of the Holocaust.”

Ilhan Omar must also apologize.  In January Omar tweeted that Israel had “hypnotized the world,” and later stated that American support for Israel was “all about the Benjamins” and involved “allegiance” to a foreign country. As David French wrote in the National Review, “Each of these statements represents a classic anti-Semitic trope, and the latter statements were made after she came under fire for her previous comments. She knew she was under scrutiny and yet doubled down.” 

At a CAIR event in the spring, Omar callously described the 9/11 terrorist attacks as “some people did something,” which sparked a large pro-Israel protest; according to an article in the National Review, CAIR was listed by the Department of Justice as an unindicted co-conspirator in funneling millions of dollars to Hamas, although to this day CAIR vehemently denies this.  

Rashida Tlaib, too, must make amends for her callous comments.  Last June she tweeted, “ICE is terrorizing our communities with zero accountability. ICE is a recent invention that makes our neighborhoods less safe, vindictively and cruelly tearing families apart.  I’m proud to stand with the growing movement to #AbolishICE!”

Incredibly, just hours after being sworn in, Tlaib said in reference to President Trump, “When your son looks at you and said ‘Mamma, look, you won — bullies don’t win.’ And I said, ‘Baby they don’t, because we’re gonna go in there and we’re gonna impeach the motherf**ker!’” . . .

To continuing reading the full article, please click here.

Elizabeth Warren Attends Radical Trump-Bashing Convention in Philadelphia

by Christopher Paslay

Most 2020 Democratic candidates stayed clear of the hard-left event.  Not so for Elizabeth Warren.  

Netroots Nation, which hosts the largest annual agitprop convention for progressives who hate Trump, the Koch Brothers, and now Nancy Pelosi, set up shop this past week at the Convention Center in Philadelphia.  The three-day event, which took place from July 11 – 13, offered more than 70 panel discussions and 60 hands-on training sessions, along with progressive film screenings, caucuses, networking opportunities, and social events.  

According to Real Clear Politics:

Just four Democratic hopefuls traveled to the City of Brotherly Love to address the progressive faithful Saturday at Netroots Nation. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee made the trip. All rank at less than 1% support in the polls. The only top-tier candidate to attend: Sen. Elizabeth Warren. 

The fact that only a handful of presidential candidates attended the convention suggests there’s a clear fracture between the more mainstream members of the party, like Joe Biden, and the hard-left Democrats, like Warren.

Still, it was quite a convention, at least according to the Netroots Nation online agenda.  On Thursday morning, angry activists were invited to begin the day by doing some light yoga to help channel their rage against an oppressive, racist America, where unemployment rates for minorities are at an all-time low.  After some breathing and relaxation exercises, the program turned its attention to a panel discussion on impeaching Trump.  “No greater modern threat exists to modern American democracy than the administration of Donald Trump,” the agenda description read, detailing how Trump was responsible for voter suppression and the appointments of lower court and Supreme Court judges “with little to no regard to the law.”  

The Trump bashing workshop was just one of many offerings.  In another room, there was a separate panel discussion about how big tech is inherently racist.  According to the agenda

Large corporations and our government are using digital tools that further cement a white racial hierarchy in our society in the pursuit of profits and political power.  Companies like Amazon, Facebook and Google are providing a megaphone for racists to spread hate speech and algorithms that discriminate against people of color. Government agencies are also using the tools of surveillance to criminalize communities of color. 

After a short break, where activists were encouraged to gather their morning coffee and recharge for more fear-mongering and race-baiting, there was a lecture on how to use the “Daily Action” app to shut down streets, and how to create resistance and rapid response through the use of digital media.  Still another morning training was titled “How the Future is Organizing Us: They’re Texting in Class,” a program designed to recruit and teach youth “to utilize the online tools that are a part of their daily life” for progressive causes and additional agitprop campaigns. 

At 11:20 a.m., there was a “mid-day mindfulness moment,” moderated by MoveOn strategist Reggie Hubbard, who claimed to “simplify chaos, build and nurture relationships, inspire others and execute stated objectives while maintaining calm focus and a positive attitude.”

The afternoon portion was rife with pandering to identity groups, like the screening and discussion of the film “Rigged: The Voter Suppression Playbook,” which insisted voter ID laws were oppressive, and that updating voter rolls (removing the names of people who have moved or who are dead) was racist.  Then there was “Strategies and Tactics for Targeting Corporations—and Winning,” which taught activists how to harass companies to bring about change.  “Want to use social media, ads and direct action to disrupt and annoy companies?” the training description asked.  For those curious about “brand-jamming, astroturfing and other clever tactics,” this was the workshop for you.  

Then there was this panel discussion: “Can We Evict the Bigots from Congress Once and For All?”  This forum claimed to shed light on why “notoriously bigoted politicians seem weaker than ever,” and how activists could remove “some of the most entrenched bigots in Congress,” like Ted Cruz, Steve King, Duncan Hunter, Mark Harris, and Dave Brat.  

At 5:00 p.m. was the opening keynote address, given by several progressive speakers, one of whom was Alicia Garza, co-creator of Black Lives Matter, the organization that praised cop-killer Assata Shakur and human rights violator Fidel Castro.  

To end the night, there was the “Laughing Liberally Comedy Jam” and “Netroots After Dark: Sex, Politics and Karaoke Sponsored by Planned Parenthood Action Fund,” where you could unwind, mingle, and relax after a full day of trashing America and coordinating ways to annoy corporations, call people bigots, indoctrinate children, and indirectly pay homage to murderous dictators and cop killers, and successfully shut down streets.     

Friday and Saturday was more of the same.  There were dozens of panel discussions and trainings on how to successfully agitate and spread divisive propaganda to people in mass quantities; ironically, Nancy Pelosi was the target of some of this progressive venom because she recently dared to criticize Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s juvenile behavior.  And speaking of AOC, one of her “squad” members, Michigan Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, proudly attacked Trump at a breakout session by proclaiming, “We’re going to impeach the MF’er, don’t worry!” 

The kicker, though, was the grand appearance by Elizabeth Warren.  As reported by Real Clear Politics:

The Massachusetts liberal was the undisputed favorite at Netroots, and the conference was clearly her home turf. So much so that when protesters interrupted her, complaining about the treatment of illegal immigrants under the Obama administration, the crowd self-policed, shouting, “Let her finish.”

“This is our moment to live our values and that means down at the border when people come here who are desperate,” Warren said, “then we need to treat them with humanity, and we need to follow the law.”

Follow the law.  Yeah, that’s rich.

Nonetheless, the crowd erupted over the presence of the liberal senator, and Warren solidified her status as a radical progressive whose agenda has gone completely outside the mainstream.